CAN NATO GUARANTEE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ?
Odds are extremely
slim that a NATO peacekeeping force will be able to guarantee Israeli security.
The
recent round of terrorist attacks from Gaza again begs the question of whether
Israel can rely on international (NATO) forces, as was proposed for areas in
the West Bank. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s insistence that
there not be Israeli security forces in the Jordan Valley is unviable as the
proposal falls far short of Israel’s primary responsibility of protecting the
nation’s citizens.
At
first glance, a NATO force in the West Bank has several tempting elements,
chief among them the idea of security for Israel without having to keep Israeli
forces in the West Bank, thus not infringing on future Palestinian sovereignty
there. While perhaps a seemingly sound compromise in theory, however, its
implementation is very problematic.
The
unfortunate truth of the matter is that the odds are extremely slim that a NATO
peacekeeping force, or any other international force for that matter, will be
able to guarantee Israeli security, and thus allay Israel’s security concerns.
For proof, one need only look back at the events of the past few decades.
Consider
the history of international peacekeeping missions. Israel experienced
firsthand the lack of security provided by international peacekeepers in 1967.
Abdel Nasser of Egypt ordered UN peacekeepers out of the Sinai as he began
amassing his army on Israel’s border, poised to attack. The peacekeepers left
obediently, leaving Israel alone to face the Egyptian army.
UNIFIL,
the peacekeeping force in Lebanon, did not prevent any of the rockets Hezbollah
fired into Israel, nor Hezbollah’s kidnapping of three Israeli soldiers, both
of which led up to the 2006 Israel- Lebanon War. Peacekeepers also retreated
from their missions in Somalia and Rwanda, failing to prevent the genocides and
mass murders that ensued. The Bosnian civil war paints another dubious picture
for international peacekeeping.
As
genocide raged, the UN guaranteed the town of Srebrenica as a safe haven for
refugees and those seeking protection from the onslaught. In 1995, the
400-strong peacekeeping force stood by as thousands of Bosniaks in Srebrenica
were killed.
All
of this is not to say that a security agreement involving the United Nations and NATO
cannot work, but that the task is enormous.
The
West Bank and Jordan Valley are kept secure by Israeli deterrence and
preemption capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces. It also includes tens of
thousands of Israeli soldiers, many of which comprise undercover units and
special anti-terror forces known to be the best in their field. There is no NATO
or U.N force that would have the necessary mandate, expertise, or the commitment
of Israeli troops. If the tragedies such as Srebrenica have shown anything, it
is the difficulty in calling upon foreign powers to treat the security of
others as if it were their own.
Israel
is kept safe because Hamas, Syria, and Hezbollah all know Israel will not
hesitate to send soldiers to the front lines, or conduct raids in light of
suspicious activity, nor will it hesitate to fire back when fired upon. Can
NATO truly guarantee that if things heat up in Jenin, or on the border of
Syrian, it will do all that is necessary to keep Israel secure? Or will it more
likely be a hindrance? To make matters worse, if Israel were to leave the West
Bank as part of a peace agreement without leaving a military presence, there
would almost certainly be an inpouring of terrorist groups. We have already
seen Hamas seizing power in Gaza after Israel withdrew in 2005, and we have
already seen al-Qaida enter the Sinai, despite the presence of the
multinational force stationed there. Israel cannot afford for the same to
happen in the West Bank, a few short miles from our major cities.
As
the breakup of Syria makes the region a magnet for global jihad terror groups
like al-Qaida, Israel risks inviting the same problems through the Kerry-
brokered peace agreement it hopes to sign with the Palestinians. The Israeli
disengagement from Gaza, the aftermath of the Iraq war, and the Syrian civil
war are all instructive models that teach us that terrorist cells will converge
on any power vacuum and establish a foothold on any acre of land left
unguarded.
Lastly,
just as the BDS movement currently compromises Israel’s image among her friends
in Europe and America, putting NATO forces in harm’s way will do the same and
complicate diplomatic relations with all her allies. This will become much more
than a public relations nightmare, affecting political and economic policies
toward Israel.
The
world longs for a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, but just
as important as reaching an agreement will be the agreement’s durability.
Israel’s
security should be maintained only by Israeli troops as long as terror groups
and dangerous, extreme ideologies still remain such persistent foes in Israel’s
backyard. This will not only ensure Israel’s security, but also the permanence
and longevity of the peace agreement for which we have all waited so long.
The
author is The Rennert Family Visiting Professor at Yeshiva University. He was
Israel’s ambassador to the United States 2002- 2006, and deputy foreign
minister of Israel 2009-2013.
